Santorini Inflates Again: Geodetic Monitoring and Modeling of the 2024–2025 Volcanic Unrest

Abstract

We analyze and discuss surface deformation patterns related to the Santorini Caldera unrest, spanning from summer 2024 to January 2025. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry was performed exploiting the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique. We used both satellite geometries of the Sentinel-1 mission, producing line-of-sight (LOS) deformation maps and displacement decomposition in vertical and horizontal components. The observed displacements were combined with measurements from four GNSS stations across Santorini island. The results highlight horizontal movements and uplift up to 70 mm/yr with a radial inflation pattern centered around the Kameni islands, reminiscent of the 2011-2012 inflation episode. The geophysical model for the 2024-2025 period suggests a positive volume rate change at 2.9 km depth. Compared to the 2011-2012 unrest, the volume rate change is smaller; potentially a mix of magma and gas may be causing pressure along Kameni’s volcano-tectonic line, this time with a shallower source than the previous unrest.

Publication
ESS Open Archive (Research Letter, Preprint)
Andreas Karavias
Andreas Karavias
Phd Candidate
Ioannis Papoutsis
Ioannis Papoutsis
Head of Orion Lab
Assistant Professor of Artificial Intelligence for Earth Observation @ NTUA
Adjunct Researcher @ NOA

Earth Observation, Machine Learning, Natural Hazard Monitoring